Pakistan's Political Quandary
by angelique van engelen
Pakistan’s more immediate political situation is finally beginning to stabilize somewhat. Yet it’s far from likely that turmoil will soon end. The latest reports citing politicians close to President Musharraf and a former Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto indicate that Musharraf is beginning to book successes, watering down the wine. He has reportedly agreed to finally discard his uniform, emblem of his rule as a military dictator.
Quitting as army chief is a concession the Pakistan leader made to hold on to his power. This way, he still will be able to run in the elections next October, something that he unsuccesfully tried to circumvent by sacking the top judge earlier a few months ago. The power-sharing deal could lead to another term for Musharraf as Pakistan’s President and for Bhutto to become Prime Minister, if they win in the elections.
Musharraf represents the Pakistan Muslim League (‘Quaid-e-Azam’ or Q for short). Bhutto heads the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). But the two had better brace for stiff competition from another return from exile, former president Nawaz Sharif. Mr Sharif, who was toppled from power by Musharraf in 1999, said Thursday at a London press conference he’s hell bent on arriving in the country on 10 September. His popularity is soaring among a Musharraf exhausted nation. Whereas Sharif is gaining popularity, some of Bhutto’s support has been waning since reports about her deal with Musharraf. Mr Sharif told reporters in London that Bhutto should not have lent her (moderate) party’s support to General Musharraf, who he described as ‘on his way out...’ He added that the deal was "bad for the country". President Musharraf has spoken out on several occasions saying Mr. Sharif had promised not to come back before he had completed his 10 year exile.
How exactly the Musharraf-Bhutto alliance is forged is not completely clear. Neither is there any guarantee that sharing the power might work. Musharraf and Bhutto are political as well as personal enemies and this shows through in their latest dealings. Aside from being a (former) political enemy, Bhutto is negotiating with a man who worked closely with military ruler General Zia-ul-Haq, who hanged her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, in 1979. Bhutto has told reporters that she is 80 to 90% agreed on powersharing. Aside from the concession by Musharraf to step down as Army Chief before the elections, he agreed to drop corruption charges against Bhutto and other former members of Pakistan's parliament. One issue that the two leaders are currently ironing out still is quite precarious in this light; restoring the balance between parliament and the president. At the moment the President has the power to sack the Prime Minister and dissolve the legislature.
These issues might be very important internally to get the political machine functioning again in Pakistan, but large portions of the population are mostly keen to just see Musharraf gone. And Musharraf is also under threat from within his own party. A powerful section PML has even been calling for Sharif’s return following Musharraf’s negotiations with Bhutto. “With his popularity touching new heights, Mr. Sharif could neutralise the PPP at the elections, and reduce its importance for Gen. Musharraf”, one observer says.
Bhutto has tried to mitigate the negative impact that her power sharing deal might have by drawing attention to her victories in the negotiations with Musharraf. Local media quote Bhutto as saying that Musharraf's party is "no longer calling the shots." “Bhutto may well alienate some opinion in Pakistan by this form of negotiation”, says professor Richard Bonney of the Europe-Islamic World Organization.
But Ms Bhutto’s own standing is also undergoing a change in perception. Like Musharraf, Bhutto is criticised by party members and voters. One prominent member of the PPP in Islamabad was quoted by the Australian as saying "Benazir is craven by personal ambition. She wants to be prime minister again and will do anything for that. But that doesn't mean to say that she has the support of the PPP in doing so.” In addition to these criticisms, many in Pakistan believe that recent political events have been steered by the US. Bhutto has been drumming up support there on a number of occasions during the past months. Pakistanis in growing numbers are blaming the fragile political situation of the past few years on the country’s alliance in with the US in the War on Terror. Recently US bombers struck alleged Al Qaeda hideouts of their own accord however. “The US has already hit out unilaterally at 'terrorists' in Pakistan without seeking prior Pakistan government approval. This is a dangerous new tendency”, says Richard Bonney. “The pressure from the US on Musharraf has been very considerable.”
The US administration’s thinking on Pakistan is seen as pro-Musharraf. Should Musharraf’s power wane, this would only complicate American counter-terrorism efforts. US officials have indicated that democracy in Pakistan was safe in the hands of Musharraf. Yet the incumbent leader’s position was recently severely undermined when a court overruled his decision to dismiss Pakistan's top judge, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in a move that was interpreted as weakening the judiciary ahead of next October’s elections. The Pakistani constitution does not allow the military ruler to be in office longer than two terms. This followed a wave of militant attacks and outrage among the public.
Angelique van Engelen is a Freelance Journalist based in Amsterdam. In addition to this article, you can read this reporter's Twitter Lifeline detailing how she covered the story.
| Created: |
August 30, 2007 09:00 GMT |
| Completed: |
August 30, 2007 14:53 GMT |
| Published: |
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