Lebanese Crisis Could Turn Violent
by angelique van engelen
The killing of Christian member of parliament Antoine Ghanem last Wednesday has made it clear that regional and international conflicts are more than tangible in Lebanon. Politics in this country mirrors the struggle between Israel and Syria and the pro-Sunni Arab nations’ jostle for regional influence outrivalling Shi’ite Iran. And the puzzle pieces together too in the greater context of the American struggle with Iran.
The car bomb which also killed four other people, further complicates the Lebanese Parliament’s election September 25 of a new President. With only days to go, there is hardly any clarity as yet where the balance is struck in the election of a successor to outgoing President Emile Lahoud.
Ghanem (64), a member of the Christian Phalange party, was the seventh anti-Syrian figure to be slain since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Last November, industry minister Pierre Gemayel, also of the Phalange Party, was assassinated.
It is important to understand the rifts in the country’s political elite because indications are that if a compromise solution to Presidential succession isn’t reached before September 25, the ‘political crisis could turn violent’, writes ISA consulting, an independent intelligence organization.
To convey the magnitude of the the precariousness of Lebanon’s internal affairs; Ghanem's death isn’t just a political blow, it also literally impacts on the status of play in politics. The deduction by one of the anti Syrian Parliamentary majority that rules the country, means this majority of Sunnis, Christians and Druze factions has even less of a majority of 68 in the 128-member parliament. The vote for a successor to the incumbent President Lahoud is now even less secured of the required two-thirds quorum.
The Lebanese opposition, made up of Shi'ites and Christians includes Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, has been keeping the country in a paralysis since the end of last year by effectively rendering governing impossible by walking out and subsequently organising protest meetings during so called ‘sit ins’. The opposition is threatening to boycott parliament, so that the legally required two-thirds quorum for the election of a President is beyond reach.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who has drawn up a plan for a deal between the opposition and the incumbent government, has been negotiating with Sa'ad Hariri, and Nasrallah Butros Sfeir. Sa'ad Hariri is the Saudi Arabia backed Sunni Future Movement leader as well as the leader of the pro-government coalition and Nasrallah Butros Sfeir is the patriarch of the Maronite Christians, whilst Nabih Berri is a pro-Syrian opposition member. Late Thursday, political sources told reporters the attempts to defuse the crisis had been without success.
The scenarios for the next few days in Lebanese politics? In an ideal world, parties will manage to strike a deal whereby the opposition agrees to give up on its claim that it has two thirds of the votes in return for agreement on a proposed Presidential candidate. If such an agreement is not reached, the chances are pretty much considered zero that a President is elected on time. In that case, analysts at ISI say, his powers are automatically transferred to the government. Some of the pro Syrian political leaders currently in power will then attempt to impose their candidate, which is not without its risks. “The fragile Lebanese political system stands in danger of total breakdown”, according to ISI.
They add, that come what may, “Syria will maintain significant influence over Lebanese political life regardless of the presidential vote result.” The international jostle for influence in tiny Lebanon’s internal affairs on a more immediate level is mostly the prerogative of not only Syria, but also of Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between Damascus and Riyad became most visible when the Saudis temporarily recalled their ambassador in Beirut because his life was feared for.
Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice in The Hague has started proceedings for the trial of the suspected murderers of President Rafiq Hariri, who was assassinated in February 2005. Hizbollah, Amal and allied pro-Syrian ministers have in the past been strongly opposed to this. They quit their posts last year having narrowly missed a convincing one-third majority that they would have used to block the international tribunal to try those held responsible for the al-Hariri murder.
The special tribunal in the Hague that was approved a few months ago by the UN has strong support of the US government. The preliminary investigation into the Hariri murder has found evidence of Syrian and Lebanese intelligence involvement in the assassination as well as clues as to what led to the murders of the recently killed anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians, ISI writes. The case is being transferred to legal experts in the international court of Justice in The Hague.
Anti Syrian political leaders have strongly condemned the killing of Ghanem and many hold Syria responsible for his death. Many politicians reiterated that the spate of killings of politicians and journalists over the past two years have all been acts of Syrian aggression. They believe it is Damascus’ way of imposing its own candidate for the upcoming presidential election. Druse leader Walid Jumblatt called on the international community to protect Lebanon against the Syrian-Iranian alliance, which has brought nothing but harm.
Syria officially denied all involvement in the killing of Ghanem and has condemned the attack. This country finds itelf increasingly isolated. It will be interesting to see how Syria will pursue its drive for power in Lebanon. If a compromise on the next Lebanese President is achieved, it will be a major victory for the US State Department. But that is deemed highly unlikely.
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September 22, 2007 10:10 GMT |
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